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Expert Knocks Bulgarian Property Market Hyperbole

By: Name

An investment expert has hit out at the "massive amounts of misinformation" about the supposed huge gains being made in the Bulgarian property market.

A major Bulgarian property developer reported yesterday that its pretax profits stood at ?38,000, a marked increase from last year's ?273,000 loss, prompting some commentators to exalt the investment potential of the eastern European state.

However, Stuart Law, managing director of Assetz, claimed that the good news for Bulgarian Property Developments is only a snapshot of the market as a whole and does not mean that private investors' finances will mirror that of local development firms.

In response to the announcement of the Bulgarian firm's profits, David Smith, sales director of Bulgarian Dreams, said that he was expecting properties to grow in value by about ten to 15 per cent a year.

Despite admitting that "there are a lot of exaggerated comments out there" he said that a "realistic" prediction would be for prices to double within the next five to six years.

But Mr Law is convinced that there is too much hyperbole surrounding property in the former communist country.

"There have been massive amounts of misinformation because people have thought they were dealing with investment advisors when they're actually dealing with estate agents," he warned.

The property investment specialist put local developers' profits down to artificially low land prices and the lack of bank finance in the country, both factors that would not help private investors to make similar gains.

Mr Law continued: "Price rises in Bulgaria had slowed to just 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year and on October 23rd the third quarter figures are out, and if we saw another very low or negative figure we'd definitely expect it to be at least a year before prices stabilise."

As with many emerging markets, prices in Bulgaria can be volatile. Although there are gains to be made in the short-term, the long-term future is often very difficult to determine. For example, Bansko was cited as a property hotspot last year but in the second three months of 2006, prices in the region dropped by two per cent.

Mr Law said that while "one or two locations" might increase by 30 per cent a year, these areas would not be "in the back of nowhere" and represent dream low-cost investments. He advised that long-term gains were more likely to be seen in Warsaw and in the more mature markets of Germany and central London.
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