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Shadowtraders and the Misery Index

By: Barbara Cohen

The Misery Index, evolved by economist Arthur Okun, is determined by adding the unemployment rate and the inflation rate together. Higher unemployment rates and fuller inflation result in economic and social costs.

http://www.shadowtraders.com has been watching the Misery Index for months. See their blog and see their commentaries on current economic circumstances. You can even register for a free webinar to see what Shadowtraders senses about the forthcoming economic conditions.

The Misery Index is calculated during each president's term of office. In recent years, Bill Clinton revelled in one of the softest rates at 7.8. Here, lower is better. Why? Lower unemployment and lower inflation. Both George H.W. Bust and George W. Bush terms have caused very high Misery Indexes. The Misery Index under George H.W. Bush was 11.

That takes us to the on-going administration and the current Misery Index.

On Friday, September 8, 2008, the unemployment rate sailed to 6.1. Along with a very uncomfortable inflation rate, the Misery Index now is getting to upwards of 11+. This is the identical rate as the Misery Rate under George H.W. Bush. Shall we say like father like son?

It was the Misery Rate that made sure Bill Clinton was elected and George H.W. Bush only 1 term in office.

For the previous 8 months running, there have not been new jobs made. As A Matter Of Fact, the study that turned up this last Friday revealed that the past months unemployment rate was amended even higher than before. The Bureau of Labor Statistics doubled the first account for June job losses from 51,000 to 100,000. There have been 1.75 million job losses just since April.

Changes for these studies are emerging monthly now. We can only figure that the true total of unemployed people was not 84,000 but in all likelihood well over 100,000 for the month of August (when the report is adjusted next month).

A reported unemployment rate of 6.1% nationwide (and much much stiffer in many areas and some races) slaps of recession.

Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board, stated that "We've seen declines every month, all year long, right through August. But the declines have started to intensify, and that will continue through the end of the year, very likely into the first months of 2009."

Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Bank of America, said... "rapid rise in the unemployment rate points to a U.S. recession, as such an increase has never occurred outside of one."

Economist after economist is shrieking recession. Exclusively the Bush Administration resists to admit recession, and they began the recession in the first place. Just how high does the Misery Index have to go before Bush admits its a recession?

Article Source: http://add-articles.com

Shadowtraders and Barbara Cohen, CIO, have spent years developing their understanding of the economic conditions of the Futures and Stock Markets. For more info, visit Barbara Cohen at www.shadowtraders.com

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